Calendar Anomalies and Market Volatility in Cryptocurrencies

May 9, 2023

In the realm of finance, cryptocurrency is a new market which has gained a lot of attention, especially among investors. So, wouldn’t it be nice to know which day of the week is best to invest?

In a study conducted by Prof. Dr. Shamsul Nahar Abdullah from INTI International University’s Faculty of Business and Communication (FBC), alongside his counterparts from Kinnaird College for Women, Pakistan, Sohar University, Oman, and the University of Lahore, Pakistan, it was revealed that the prevalence of buying crypto on Monday shows promising lucrative trading and profits.

The study titled “Calendar Anomalies and Market Volatility in Selected Cryptocurrencies”, which primarily focused on Bitcoin, explained that December displayed markedly greater returns for all currencies compared to January.

“When Bitcoin was first introduced in 2009, it started to create a craze among investors especially now that the price of these assets is equal to gold. While the demand is still high, investors are now obliged to learn the calendar effects in cryptocurrencies to make extra profit since the momentum has gained steadily over the years,” said Prof. Shamsul.

According to the study, the price mechanism and volatility of cryptocurrency are of interest to financial market researchers. It was revealed that cryptocurrency has a highly volatile market due to its frequent of price movements, both up and down.

“The present data and findings are quite logical. High volatility comes with significant unpredictability for investors, thus, making them apprehensive about trading in the market. It was also discovered in past research that Germany and Japan tend to have the highest volatility on Mondays, while the United Kingdom experiences high volatility on Thursdays, and the US and Canada tend to have high volatility on Fridays,” he shared.

Published in the Journal of Cogent Business and Management, the research provides evidence on the vulnerability of digital currencies and provides attention to financial markets. It was also revealed the January effect, which is described as the tendency for stock prices to rise at the start of the year, especially in January, is also of great interest to the financial market.

A study by Prof. Dr. Shamsul Nahar Abdullah from INTI International University’s Faculty of Business and Communication (FBC) titled “Calendar Anomalies and Market Volatility in Selected Cryptocurrencies” revealed that Monday is the best day to invest in Bitcoin.

“Among the top five currencies, Bitcoin has the highest closing price. The major increase that happened during 2017-2018 showed the highest trend, but gradually decreased in 2019. However, it again showed a fluctuating but upward trend afterwards,” he said, adding that the higher price was due to the manipulation of other cryptocurrencies known as the great cryptocurrency crush.

The present data also demonstrated that the minimum returns for Bitcoin are typically seen on Saturday while the maximum returns are typically seen on Monday and Thursday with the lowest risk compared to the other working days.

“The cryptocurrency market is considered new and more volatile than traditional financial markets, which could be the cause of higher volatility and inconsistent outcomes. It is very speculative and is impacted by things like news, hype, and rumours, making it challenging to spot recurring trends or anomalies,” said Prof. Shamsul who feels optimistic about this year’s return of high profit for Bitcoin.

Specifically, the significance of cryptocurrencies skyrocketed after the financial crisis of 2007–2008. In addition to puzzling the authorities on how to regulate it, this market offered academics an intriguing area to study.

Prof. Shamsul added, “Due to the lack of regulation, it has drawn significant investments, but it is also frequently criticized for serving as a platform for speculation and money laundering issues.”

To conclude, he said the study is crucial for policymakers and regulators since it will help them create regulations by taking calendar anomalies into consideration.

“Additionally, they learn how to reduce the risk of abnormal earnings and price increases for digital currencies, which could damage investors’ enthusiasm in cryptocurrencies. Investors will greatly benefit from the study too as it will help them detect market-wide patterns of returns and dangers, as well as create portfolios for maximum profit,” he said.